The stock market has enjoyed a significant rally since the December 13, 2023 Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference, when it was declared that further rate hikes were not necessary and projections of three rate cuts in 2024 are expected via the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dot plot.
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Formulating a risk asset strategy going into the new year may need to take less counsel of noisy near term changing circumstances and instead focus on the larger moves in market and economic data which have already occurred.
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The U.S. 10-year Treasury Note yield declined from a high of 5.02% on October 23rd to 4.45%.
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Nearshoring is defined as the practice of transferring a business operation to a nearby country, especially in preference to a more distant one.
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Before this bout of broad economic price instability, what was the widely held belief regarding inflation fighting?
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The main U.S. large-cap equity benchmark index is the S&P 500 Index.
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Last May, we wrote to highlight the pending increases in electricity and natural gas utility prices that Americans would soon be facing.
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The last two months have seen the S&P 500 trade in a range between 4,200 on the upper end and 3,800 on the lower end.
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Inflation, the broad rise in the level of prices for a sustained period, has hampered consumers and producers for over a year.
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At the time of this writing, NBC news is projecting a Republican House with 221 members in the caucus, while the Senate control remains unknown.
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The S&P 500 has rallied sharply from the intraday low seen in mid-June through mid-August, where markets again met resistance.
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The words fast and effective are words seldom used to describe the United States Congress.
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As of mid-June, the S&P 500 was down over 20%. This is a widely held mark to record a bear market regime.
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Most Americans know well the feeling of energy inflation every time they have filled up gasoline or diesel tanks at the pump this year.
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Business cycles tend to have a pattern displaying distinct phases.
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For the first time in years, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled its intent to withdraw stimulus from the economy and to begin a rate hike cycle.
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The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee projections that came out of the December meeting showed participants preparing to respond to the threat of higher price instability, which may have resulted from extraordinary fiscal measures during the COVID-19 crisis combined with supply side constraints appearing globally in key markets.
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The United States Congress did something it rarely does, it accomplished something. A $1 trillion infrastructure bill was passed by both houses of Congress and goes to the President who has signaled he is more than willing to sign it.
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Following the release of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data to the end of August, the jury still appears to be out regarding whether or not the observed inflationary impulse in the American economy is transitory or rather a condition which will remain elevated for some time.
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Energy has been vital for the production of goods, particularly since the industrial revolution.
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The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s scheduled June meeting took place this week.
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Depending on which political party’s representatives you listen to, or whatever "news" channel you frequent, individuals will hear distorted definitions of the current administration’s infrastructure proposal.
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If you have never driven in Pittsburgh, PA, you are missing out on one of the most intense, bridge-driving experiences in the country.
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The steep recession that occurred as a result of the Global Financial Crisis saw the economy shed 5.1M nonfarm payroll jobs.
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Last month’s Tax Tidbits publication included a piece on dueling tax codes between President Trump and now President-Elect Biden.
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In an anxiety inducing year, where we’ve pushed and pulled waiting to see what comes next, we still have so many unknowns and contentious points from political postulating to COVID-19 to the markets.
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A fair amount of talk exists about expectations for future inflation in the wake of large-scale monetary and fiscal policy efforts due to the COVID-19 recession.
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Actions by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy under the unprecedented contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have lowered interest rates.
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When assessing an economy that has experienced tectonic shifts, it is vital to hold fast to traditional gauges and data, as well as look at context for new directions and signs of life.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a shutdown of the economy, which by the numbers will almost certainly produce an economic recession.
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The clarifying word regarding the intermediate outlook is perhaps best described as “uncertain”, given recent events and market movements.
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For many beneficiaries of IRAs from individuals who die after January 1st, 2020, the government has harmed you.
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Growing up, winter was my favorite season. I loved the cold, the snow, and the jolliness of everyone.
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The Federal Reserve projections for the change in real economic output growth as of September, 2019 are 2.0% for 2020 and 1.9% in the longer run (after 2022).
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Saving for retirement can be difficult for anyone, as it takes years of dedication and discipline to follow a path that requires sacrificing desires of today for future gratification and security.
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The financial markets have an alphabet soup of acronyms for different phenomena and metrics, specifically: ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).
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We don’t mean the actual beast but rather the Busch Garden Williamsburg’s vaunted roller coaster, the Loch Ness Monster.
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While the S&P 500 has advanced nearly 17% total return (at the time of this writing), the Healthcare sector has not been so lucky, rising barely over 3% year-to-date.
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Marketeers and businesses pride themselves in creating small jingles and ad slogans that work like guerrilla warfare to win over consumers.
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In the wake of a peak to trough sell-off of nearly 20% in the S&P 500 and then a 10% retracement back higher which began in the new year.
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Volatility made a significant comeback in 2018 with mini 10% corrections in February and April and most recently in November and December.
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You have heard it in the financial press and have seen it in your own portfolio.
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It used to be said, "America sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold."
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The subscription business model has come a long way since magazines.
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The manner of work has dramatically changed over the past few decades.
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Since the summer of 2016, the major economies of the globe began to achieve growth that appeared to be in unison.
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Credit cards are a sucker’s game for 65% of American cardholders, as they pay interest that averages 15% and higher to corporate loan sharks.
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From January 29th to February 8th, the market experienced its first 10% correction since February 2016.
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Over the last eight years, real growth in the economy has averaged around 2%. It was unable to break decisively above 3% or fall significantly below 1% for any length of time.
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The House Republican leadership has recently unveiled its detailed tax reform proposal and, in it, will be many winners and some losers. To begin, tax brackets would change and an example for married joint filers is below.
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Currency has been a medium of exchange for millennia. From Rai stones in Palau, to knives in China, to jewelry in Egypt and all the way to our current fiat system, money has been the agreed upon way to store value to exchange for goods and services later.
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Forgetting for a second the noise and concern over North Korean nuclear tipped missiles, a noticeable trend not seen since the end of the Global Financial Crisis has appeared over the intermediate term. The major economic areas of the world the United States, Japan, the Eurozone and the developing nations are all trending at reasonable levels of growth simultaneously.
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The industrial sector can be viewed as businesses that build or move an economy. The sector is made up of construction firms, railroads, airlines, home building products, defense contractors, etc. It is the segment of the economy that relies on large capital expenditures due to the high value and cost of production.
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Choices can always be challenging: Do I want chocolate or vanilla? What’s for supper? What do I want to do in retirement? As the options increase for each decision, the difficulty of making that decision increases. In your investment portfolio, there are millions of allocations, companies, and strategies to choose from. With only a limited amount of capital, you must deploy your assets to make the best risk-adjusted return for your situation.
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Income in portfolios primarily comes from stock dividends and more stable and secure coupon interest payments on bonds. Higher inflation, when observed as a broad and sustained increase in the price level of goods and services, acts as a tax on money holdings, so the practical reality for individuals receiving an income stream could be reduced purchasing power under higher inflationary regimes.
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You may have heard radio ads for Home Storage IRAs with sales pitches that use fear tactics such as "Your IRA may be at risk again." or "What if the market crashes like 2008?" Perhaps you have seen ads that highlight the control of having gold coins in such an IRA, like "Hold your IRA in your hands."
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The subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 sent the value of most investors’ largest asset, their homes, into a tailspin. Eight years later, the housing market is still a confusing place for buyers and sellers alike. The national median home price has recovered strongly. Rentals have been in high demand and borrowing rates have never been lower.
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While it may not be wise to draw firm long-term conclusions from the short-term market trends that emerged after the U.S. Presidential election, the recent price action may be instructive about market participants initial thinking on the matter. The general market conditions this year have existed against a backdrop of low growth both here and around the globe.
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From Keynesian economists to the European Central Bank, calls to eliminate physical currency in society are occurring. Excuses for this incursion into the privacy rights of citizens mirror previous power grabs by governments citing the need to fight the black market, illegal immigration and terrorism.
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Which of the following quotes is more accurate: “Many hands make light work” or “Too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth”? Both sayings reflect people coming together, but each results in a different conclusion.
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 160,000 in April and that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5%.
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The S&P 500 Index has rallied nearly 10% since its February low. The strong rally may lead an investor to consider whether the worst is over or if this is just a bounce within the context of a longer down trend.
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Over the past six months, we have outlined the negative impacts a strong U.S. dollar and lower oil prices have had on financial markets. Unfortunately, the fallout has intensified through the first six weeks of the year.
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A Red Flag Ocean Warning is defined as a “high hazard, high surf and/or strong currents”, cautioning potential swimmers that they should take extreme caution if entering the water.
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The stock market finally experienced a long overdue correction. The sell-off was induced by signs of slower global growth and investor concerns that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could exacerbate the global slowing and ultimately push the U.S. economy into a recession.
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As this is being written on August 12, 2015, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is down more than 9% this year, a stark contrast to the 1% gain in the S&P 500 Index and the 2% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Over the last month, stocks have maintained their flat year-to-date pattern, but the bond market has started to exhibit renewed volatility and increased selling pressure.
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Through the first week of May, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported their first quarter earnings. Of the 453 companies that have reported, 36% exceeded expectations, 16% were in line with expectations and 48% missed analysts’ expectations.
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Subtle changes in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rhetoric have many market pundits forecasting the first interest rate increase since 2006.
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The U.S. stock market has traded sideways so far this year with 3% weekly swings. Despite the lack of market direction, the growing economic concern has been the potential Greek break away from the European Union (EU).
Bull and Bear Bulletin - December 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - November 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - September 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - August 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - June 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - May 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - March 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - February 2014
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - December 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - November 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - August 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - June 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - March 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - February 2013
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - December 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - November 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - September 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - August 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - June 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - May 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - March 2012
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Bull and Bear Bulletin - February 2012
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Published March 16, 2024 at 03:14 AM
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, warned that a “hurricane” was about to hit the U.S. economy in June 2022, and Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, predicted a “debt crisis” and a ”perfect storm” of economic pain.
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